Newsletter Mercados

The global session shows a divergent tone. Asian markets closed positive (Nikkei +0.16%, Hang Seng +0.95%), while Europe trades with a mixed bias (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.13%, FTSE 100 +0.46%). The backdrop is characterized by a moderation in AI enthusiasm following Nvidia's earnings, which has driven a rotation out of growth assets in the U.S. towards other sectors and regions. The global yield curve remains subdued, without aggressive movements.

US Treasury yields closed broadly unchanged yesterday: 10y at 4.00%, 30y at 4.65%. The 2s10s and 5s30s curves remained stable, without repricing of monetary policy expectations. Drivers were marginal safe-haven demand following the tech pullback, but the lack of movement in the front-end suggests limited conviction about imminent Fed changes. Today, attention focuses on the absence of macro data, keeping yields in consolidated ranges.

European sovereign debt shows slight declines in pre-market yields: Bund 10y at 2.70%, OAT 10y at 3.25%, BTP 10y at 3.30%. Peripheral spreads remain stable (BTP-Bund at 60bps, Bonos-Bund at 35bps), without signs of stress. No relevant auctions are scheduled today. The European curve remains positively sloped, with movements attributable to technical flows rather than fundamental changes in ECB expectations.

U.S. corporate credit spreads remain contained: CDX.NA.IG 5Y at 53.52bps, CDX.NA.HY 5Y at 320.06bps. Directional ETFs showed marginal movements (HYG -0.09%, LQD +0.06%), indicating beta-driven rather than active flows. Resilience in credit suggests that the equity pullback has not generated systemic concerns, though the lack of significant widening reflects caution and an absence of bullish conviction.

The DXY closed at 97.746 (-0.04%), showing stability. EUR/USD at 1.18064 (-0.07%), GBP/USD at 1.34711 (-0.64%), USD/JPY at 155.884 (-0.20%). The dollar weakened slightly against the yen and the pound, reflecting a slight risk aversion following the tech pullback, but without strong directional moves. USD/MXN at 17.19785 (+0.23%) showed peso strength, supported by local flows. The drivers are rotation flows rather than changes in interest rate expectations.

Commodities recorded gains: WTI at 66.87 USD/barrel (+2.55%), Brent at 72.56 USD/barrel (+2.56%), driven by the U.S.-Iran agreement to continue nuclear negotiations, reducing geopolitical tensions. Gold at 2,202.30 USD/oz (+0.50%) benefited from caution in equity. Copper at 6.12 USD/lb (+2.90%) and silver at 30.08 USD/oz (+3.55%) showed strength on expectations of Chinese demand. Natural gas at 2.87 USD/MMBtu (+1.52%) and agricultural commodities (corn +3.00%, wheat +2.32%) supported by seasonal factors.

US equities showed divergence yesterday: the S&P 500 closed at 6,908.86 (-0.54%), the Nasdaq Composite at 22,878.38 (-1.18%), while the Dow Jones advanced marginally to 49,499.20 (+0.03%). The tech pullback was driven by doubts about the sustainability of AI spending following Nvidia's earnings, dragging down the sector. The Russell 2000 (+0.52%) showed resilience, indicating a rotation into small-caps. Pre-market futures point to a mixed opening, with a lack of directional conviction as the market digests these movements.

Bitcoin trades at USD 65,803.70 (-2.45%), Ethereum at USD 1,957.39 (-3.42%). Cryptocurrencies retreated, aligning with the risk-off sentiment in tech equity. Ethereum ETF flows transitioned to net inflows, offering support around USD 1,800, but the lack of upside momentum suggests consolidation. Drivers include correlation with NASDAQ and profit-taking after recent rallies.

The market enters the session with a cautious and mixed tone, following yesterday's tech pullback. The absence of macro catalysts today could keep price action range-bound, with a focus on rotation flows and commodity developments. Key levels to monitor: S&P 500 6,900 (support), WTI 66.50 USD/barrel (technical support), and credit spreads for signs of stress.

What we are not seeing: There is no aggressive repricing in the UST curve, nor significant widening in corporate credit spreads. The absence of strong directional flows suggests that movements are technical rather than driven by fundamental conviction.

Conditional Trading Idea: If WTI maintains support above 66.50 USD/barrel in the first hour of trading, consider a long position in the energy sector (XLE ETF at current levels ~$95), due to reduced geopolitical tensions and resilient global demand, with a stop-loss at 65.80 USD/barrel.